GOP Race Appears "Frozen" Heading Into Final Days

When it comes to who will be the Republican gubernatorial standard bearer following next Tuesday's August 3 primary -- pundits are describing the race as "frozen."

"I think it's still up for grabs," said Inside Michigan Politics Editor Bill Ballenger. "Anybody could win."

The polls are continually showing three leaders in the race between Attorney General Mike Cox, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) and Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder floating at roughly the same 20 percent level.

By contrast, others believe the momentum in the Democratic race has shifted to Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero. Late last week, Detroit News Editorial Page Editor Nolan FINLEY predicted that Bernero would win. Inside Michigan Politics editor Bill BALLENGER said he believes that barring something unforeseen the Democrat's nominee will be Bernero.

"Unless something spectacular is going to happen in the last week -- [House Speaker Andy] Dillon drops some kind of bomb, he comes up with some kind of money we didn't know he had -- I see the tide running inexorably away from Dillon," Ballenger told MIRS.

Dollars Appear Small For Gubernatorial Candidates

Save for the personal wealth of Ann Arbor Businessman Rick Snyder -- it appears Michigan's economy is making it relatively difficult for candidates to raise significant pools of cash.

Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero came in with below $750,000 raised on Friday -- the deadline for candidates to file pre-primary finance reports. Earlier in July, AFL-CIO President Mark Gaffney said Bernero would have to raise at least $2 million and get "airborn" [up with radio and television ads] or he'd lose.

House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) who was widely talked about in political circles as shooting for raising between $3 and $5 million for the primary posted a fund-raising total of $1.4 million.

On the Republican side, Snyder showed the biggest numbers but he's also written out personal loans totaling just over $6 million. So far, the campaign posts raising $7.2 million which means Snyder's real fundraising tally isn't far off any of his competitors.

On total raised to date, Attorney General Mike Cox has that title hitting just shy of $3 million. On the title of most donors, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) has that title having received dollars from 6,800 givers.

In total, Hoekstra raised $1.7 million, $1.2 million of it during 2010. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard passed an important mark by raising just over $1 million. Kalamazoo state Sen. Tom George has raised $344,000 so far in his effort.

Oh Boy, 42 Cents On The Dollar

The five eligible candidates who have indicated they are seeking public funds can get 42 cents on the dollar in "matching" state campaign funds.

According to Terry Stanton, spokesman for the Department of Treasury, the amount currently available for primary election distribution is still $2,117,370.

"The current pro-ration is 42 cents on the dollar, with five eligible candidates having indicated that they are seeking public funds," Stanton told MIRS.

The five candidates Stanton made reference to were:

- Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero

- Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard

- Attorney General Mike Cox

- Sen. Tom George (R-Texas Twp.)

- U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland)

That 42 cents on the dollar might seem miserly, but it's better than what things looked like just a few months ago.

Little Change In June Unemployment Rates

Unemployment rates "changed little" throughout the state for June 2010, according to the Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth (DELEG). Total employment levels rose slightly, thanks to moderate seasonal increases, in almost all regions.

More specifically, unemployment rates were a wash for the state's 17 regions. Monthly employment rates slightly decreased in seven regions, while have slightly increased in nine regions.

"Michigan's local labor markets in June were relatively stable, with most regions reporting typical, seasonal over-the-month changes," said the Rick Waclawek, director of the Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives.

He added, "Jobless rates have declined over the year in a number of the state's local areas."

The largest jobless rate increase occurred in the Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Ann Arbor, and Lansing-East Lansing regions. To put it into perspective, the increase was only approximately half a percentage point.

On the other hand, the regions that saw the greatest decrease in unemployment rates were in the Northwest Lower Michigan region and Flint.

Perhaps the most encouraging news is that, according to the DELEG report, 14 of Michigan's 17 regions saw their jobless rates decline from June 2009 to June 2010. The average drop was approximately one percentage point.

The counties with the lowest monthly unemployment rate are Mackinac County with a 6.2 percent rate, Cheboygan County with a 9.0 percent rate and Washtenaw County with a 9.3 percent rate.

Baraga County, at 23.3 percent, Oscoda County with a 20.4 percent rate and Montmorency County, at 18.9 percent, are the three counties in the state that posted the highest monthly unemployment rates.

Legislative Introductions Of Note

The following are legislative bill introductions over the past two weeks of note to the business community.

House:

HB 6326, HEALTH FACILITIES, Other, Require health facilities and certain health professionals to submit electronically health care claims to insurance carriers unless hardship exemption is granted by department. (Johnson, Bert, 07/21/10) Amends 1978 PA 368 (MCL 333.1101 to 333.25211), by adding section 20154. REFERRED TO HEALTH POLICY

HB 6327, CRIMES; Computer, NEW, Create electronic mail fraud regulatory act. (Jones, Robert, 07/21/10) REFERRED TO JUDICIARY

HB 6349, LABOR, Collective Bargaining, NEW, Disallow collection of service fee from unrepresented public workers. (Meltzer, Kim, 07/21/10) Amends 1947 PA 336 by amending section 10 (MCL 423.210). REFERRED TO LABOR

Senate:

SB 1422, SALES TAX, Exemptions, Clarify exemptions for fund-raising by nonprofits and charities. (Hunter, Tupac A., 07/21/10) Amends 1933 PA 167 by amending section 4q (MCL 205.54q), as amended by 2004 PA 173. REFERRED TO EDUCATION